ExxonMobil have recently released their long-term outlook for oil and gas, entitled “A view to 2040“. Their analysis goes beyond the 2030 time-frame captured by recent BP and Shell analysis, but their conclusions are broadly similar.
- The world’s population will grow by more than 25% between 2010 and 2040, reaching nearly 9 billion. By 2040, 75% of the world’s population will reside in Asia Pacific & Africa, and India will have the largest individual population. India will also have the largest population of working age people, as China ages.
- Energy efficiency will improve, allowing world GDP to grow faster than energy demand. However, energy demand will still increase markedly through the period. By 2040 non-OECD energy demand will be twice OECD energy demand (vs. ~ equal in 2005).
- ExxonMobil predicts that total liquids demand will grow to 113mmbpd by 2040, a 30% increase on 2010.
- Heavy duty transportation demand will grow by 65% by 2040.
- Demand for chemical feedstocks will increase by 50% to 2040.
- Global electricity demand will increase by 85% over the period
- Oil and gas will continue to dominate the energy mix…