Whilst exploration finds have been declining since the 1960s, there are a number of developments under planning or in early execution.
The Wikipedia Oil MegaProjects page tries to keep track of upcoming production additions.
Other agencies have also reported predicted developments:
– CERA argued, beginning in May 2005, that oil production capacity would increase by as much as 16 million barrels per day (2,500,000 m³/d) between 2004 and 2010 – almost a 20% increase.
– Again in mid 2006, CERA concluded based on an analysis of 360 projects that global oil production capacity might increase to 110 million barrels per day (17,000,000 m³/d) by 2015.
– No details of the above are available without buying the (very expensive) CERA reports.
– Iran’s Azadegan has over 25 billion barrels of oil in place and an estimated recovable of 5 to 6 billion barrels. This new giant is currently not expected to produce in excess of 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day.
– In 2001 Iran also announced the discovery of another very large offshore oilfield, Dasht-e Abadan. Potential production rates are not known.
– Saudi Arabia apparently has over 70 fields discovered but yet to produce
- Saudi Aramco has been discussing plans to expand its Qatif field at a cost of $1.5 billion. This would apparently raise Qatif’s field to a capacity of 500,000 barrels per day.
- The other major Saudi potential project is the rehabilitation of its Khurais field which could apparently produce 800,000 barrels per day by 2005 at a cost of $3 billion.
– Algeria has two new large oilfields under development.
- The Ourhoud field is expected to have peak capacity of 230,000 (plateau from 2003)
- Anadarko’s Ghadames field hopes to produce 300,000 bopd (as at 2002).
– Nigeria has several deepwater fields scheduled to come on stream over the next three to five years. None are expected to exceed 200,000 barrels per day.
– The Kashagan oilfield in Kazakstan’s portion of the Caspian Sea might become the largest non-OPEC field discovered since the Tengiz field.
– There are approximately 25 deepwater fields on the drawing board in the Gulf of Mexico coming on stream between the end of 2001 and 2005.
- One of these fields, BP’s Crazy Horse, will have peak production of 250,000 barrels per day.
- Seven others will have peak production rates in the range of 100,000 barrels a day each.
- The remaining 17 deepwater Gulf of Mexico fields all fall under the 100,000 barrels per day “giant field base.”
– West Africa has up to ten new giant deepwater fields now discovered.
- Several deepwater fields in Angola have production targets of 200,000 barrels per day or slightly higher.
- None, thus far, are expected to exceed 250,000 barrels per day.
- Girassol is just beginning production (at the end of 2001). Its peak output will be 200,000 barrels per day, and it is expected to remain above this level for at least four years.
However, the elephant in the room is Iraq.